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May 2008
'The Deniers' details flaws in the theories on global warming
Published in the Vancouver Sun, May 9, the Hamilton Spectator, May 20, and the Airdrie Echo, June 4, 2008
An
anti-nuclear, Toronto-based, urban-loving, 1970s
peace activist who opposes subsidies to the oil
industry might be the last person expected to
detail cracks in the science of global warming.
But
Lawrence Solomon has done just that in a short
book with a long subtitle: The Deniers: The
world-renowned scientists who stood up against
global warming hysteria, political persecution,
and fraud (and those who are too fearful to do
so).
The
spark for the book came after an American TV
reporter compared those who question the Kyoto
Protocol to Holocaust deniers. But Solomon
wondered about that so he sought out the experts
in specific fields to garner their views.
Consider Dr. Edward Wegman, asked by the U.S.
Congress to assess the famous "hockey stick"
graph from Michael Mann, published by the UN's
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
which purported to show temperatures as mostly
constant over the past 1,000 years -- except for
a spike in the last century.
The
IPCC claimed the hockey stick "proved" unique
20th-century global warming. But it didn't.
Wegman, who drew on the initial skepticism of
two Canadians who questioned Mann's statistical
handling, found that his "hockey stick" was the
result of a statistical error -- the statistical
model had mined data to produce the hockey stick
and excluded contrary data.
That
mistake occurred not because Mann was deceptive
or a poor scientist; he's an expert in the
paleoclimate community as were those who
reviewed his paper. But that was the problem:
The paleoclimate scientists were trapped in
their own disciplinary ghetto and not up to
speed on the latest, most appropriate
statistical methods.
Is
Wegman the scientific equivalent of medical
quack? No. His CV includes eight books, more
than 160 published papers, editorships of
prestigious journals, and past presidency of the
International Association of Statistical
Computing, among other distinctions.
Opinions in The Deniers vary dramatically and
Solomon, a non-scientist, does not try to settle
the disputes. He instead attempts to give
readers insight into how non-settled and
fragmentary the science is on climate change.
For
example, think the polar icecaps are melting?
That's true at the North Pole but it's not
certain at the South Pole, according to Dr.
Duncan Wingham. A portion of
Wingham is cautious. He doesn't deny global
warming might exist. But his data show the
Antarctic ice sheet is growing, not shrinking,
and the chapter on why ice measurements are
tricky is another fine, informative part of The
Deniers.
Is
Wingham a flake, a denier in league with flat-earthers?
Only if you think the chair of the department of
space and climate physics and head of earth
sciences at University College London, and a
member of the Earth Observation Experts Group,
among other qualifications, qualifies for such a
label.
The
most intriguing part of The Deniers is the
attempt by dozens of credible scientists to
point out what should be common-sense obvious:
The sun might affect Earth's climate.
"We
understand the greenhouse effect pretty well,"
Solomon writes, "we know little about how the
sun -- our main source of energy driving the
climate -- affects climate change."
But
the IPCC refuses to even consider the sun's
influence on Earth's climate -- it conceives of
its mission only to investigate possible
man-made effects upon climate. But that's akin
to a hit-and-run investigation where police rule
out all cars except one model before they even
question witnesses.
No one
who reads The Deniers will be able to claim a
scientific consensus exists on global warming.
(Some scientists even argue the planet's climate
is about to cool.)
But it
might leave honest readers with this question:
So what? Why not spend billions to reduce
possible human-induced climate change just in
case?
Because, as Antonio Zichichi (a professor
emeritus at the
The "deniers" and The Deniers matter because the book is about the search for scientific explanations for a complex phenomenon by eminent scientists in a better position than most to judge whether a consensus exists on global warming. Their collective verdict, much varied in the particulars, is "No."
Keywords: The Deniers, hockey stick, International Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, climate change, Frontier Centre for Public Policy
News Beats: Environment