Dr. Stephen Murgatroyd                    

FREDERICTON, NB, Nov. 30, 2009/ Troy Media/ — Stephen Harper is right. Rhetoric is one thing, action is another.

As the Commonwealth wrapped up its meetings this week-end, Harper reiterated Canada’s commitment to emissions reduction of 20 per cent on 2006 levels by 2020 – a position close to that taken by US President Barack Obama in the hope that he can persuade the US Congress to support him. Canada is also seeking emission cuts of between 60 and 70 per cent on 2006 levels by 2050.

Harper’s key point, however, was not about targets but about clear and concrete action plans to make emissions reduction happen. He noted that the Liberals, under former Prime Minister Jean Chretien, made major rhetorical commitments in the 1990s to reduce emissions then promptly forgot about it. Harper then emphasized the importance of technology development in the fight against rising CO2 emissions. It is “folly,” he said, to focus on targets without looking in a systematic and thorough way at the action plan to achieve them.

India is likely to say something similar in this last week before the Copenhagen summit begins on December 7^th. Following Obama’s lead, India is likely to link emissions targets to growth and use a different metric to state its emission reduction targets. Some media in India is reporting that Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh will offer cuts of between 20 to 25 per cent, but this is unconfirmed by government officials. China recently announced that premier Wen Jiabao will go to the Copenhagen summit and that it will reduce emissions per unit of gross domestic product in 2020 by 40 to 45 per cent from 2005 levels.

The rhetoric is becoming more shrill as Copenhagen approaches. George Monbiot, the respected journalist and environmental campaigner who writes for The Guardian, focused attention on the oil sands in a column in The Globe and Mail recently, stating that oil sands mining is one of the most damaging activities on the planet. He is calling for a halt in production. He ties Canada’s weak record on emissions reduction and climate change negotiations to the commitment to oil sands development. Without a clear strategy for green oil, he suggests, the oil sands will torpedo any climate change strategy for Canada.

Some 15,000 delegates will be attending the Copenhagen meeting and over 20,000 environmental activists and campaigners will also be there. Over 65 of the world’s leaders, including Harper, Obama and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, will be in attendance.

Momentum is growing for the summit to produce more than a political agreement – firm emission targets and an agreed technology transfer policy and a social adjustment fund for developing countries will provide the focus for the negotiations. While many counties may make commitments, many will also need to ratify these commitments with their own legislatures. This may prove difficult, especially for Obama. Resistance is growing to climate change policies as the economic costs, especially in terms of energy pricing, becomes clear.

In this last week before the summit, we can expect more dire news about the state of the planet and the impact climate change will have. But the science behind this news is increasingly being questioned, following the hacking of emails at the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. Many see these as exposing a conspiracy to manipulate science so as to pursue a change agenda, focusing on a new global government and a redistribution of wealth. Others defend the scientists involved, suggesting that the emails and documents involved in Climategate tell a very different story. The fall out, however, may impact the ability of world leaders, especially in the US, Australia and Britain, to “sell” any treaty agreement.

It will be an interesting week. Harper emerges from the Commonwealth meeting as a voice of reason. No wonder he is derided.

Channels: The Calgary Beacon, January 31, 2010