November 16, 2009

By Stephen Murgatroyd
Columnist
Troy Media

Dr. Stephen Murgatroyd

ROME/EDMONTON, AB, Nov 16, 2009/ Troy Media/ — On Thursday, during a dinner in Brussels, European leaders will decide who will occupy two key positions in the European Union – the President of the European Council and the odd sounding yet critically important High Representative for Foreign Affairs.

Both positions were created as a result of the Lisbon Treaty, the new constitution for the European Union which aims to make the EU both more efficient and to enhance its role on the world stage.

The job of managing the selection process, largely secretive and with not even a veneer of democracy, is in the hands of the Swedish Prime Minister, Fredrik Reinfeldt, current President of the European Union.

It will be a difficult meal, in part because no one is really sure what kind of role they would like the persons holding these two positions to take and in part because France and Germany are seeking to shape the outcome through sheer brute force. The French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, and the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, are believed to have settled on the Belgian Prime Minister, Herman Van Rompuy, as their candidate for President. He is clearly the current favourite and, if the decision was to made over lunch today, he would secure the support of most nations in the EU. But there appears to be growing resentment that France and Germany are “running the show,” which  could lead other nations to support Tony Blair, the former British Prime Minister.

Only a few weeks ago Blair was a front runner, but his support of the Iraq war, his alliance and close relationship with George W Bush and his smooth talking “spin” politics are all weighing against him. Angela Merkel, in particular, is against his appointment.

Concern has also been raised about having a British person represent the EU when Britain itself is often ambivalent about many aspects of Europe and is not a member of the Eurozone.

As for the “foreign minister” position, there is the possibility that David Miliband, Britain’s Foreign Secretary, could secure the position. Over the last month, during a series of interviews and a detailed speech on Europe’s place in the world, he has said what many other European leaders wanted to hear. However, Miliband recently ruled himself out, raising the ire of at least one Brussels official who told the BBC that his behaviour looks like a case of “political flirting.” Cynics believe he is attempting to position himself to be British Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s successor when Brown steps down, likely after the parliamentary elections in Britain, now widely expected in March 2010.

The Swedish Prime Minister is hoping to arrive at the dinner with only two on his list, as much of a pipe dream as securing a binding climate change treaty in Copenhagen just a few days later. The “old firm” European countries and the newly arrived Eastern European members of the EU see the two positions in different ways, each requiring very different kinds of people. While Poland, for example, has suggested that there be interviews and a selection committee, Germany has made clear that they do not want either position holder to consider themselves anything more than spokespersons for the EU: they are emphatically not to be policy makers. The fear is that by the time desert arrives, a decision will either be postponed or candidates chosen through so many compromises and side-deals that the positions themselves will be devalued.

When George W Bush visited the EU in 2005 he famously said “You sure gotta lotta presidents in this Europe.” That is part of the problem. While the EU views the two new positions as the vehicle to enhance its status in the world, there are a lot of Presidents who want to secure the credit for being the voice of Europe.

Being a waiter at the dinner on Thursday would be an interesting position, and no doubt many journalists are practicing carrying trays and pouring wine. There will be a lot of talk and side conversations. Whether a decision will be made is anyone’s guess. It may be that, as someone remarked about Clement Atlee, “an empty taxi turned up at the dinner and the first President of the European Council got out.”