Top 10 forecasts for global travel in 2010
November 6, 2009
By Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future
Rohit Talwar
LONDON, UK, Nov. 6, 2009/ — My last two columns highlighted Top Ten forecasts for the events industry in 2010 and Top 10 forecasts for science and technology in 2010. This column highlights 10 areas of global travel that I think will gain increasing prominence and media coverage in 2010.
1. Air Today, Gone Tomorrow – As airlines continue to struggle, airports will be under intense pressure to diversify their business models and ensure they can survive under even the worst case economic scenarios. The airlines globally will lose US$8 to10 billion in 2009. In addition, the pattern of airline closure continues – airline update.com lists 90 airline failures and seven mergers for 2008 and a further 31 failures and six mergers to date for 2009. We can expect 30 to 40 more failures and further mergers by the end of 2010. This will result in further reductions in schedules and flight frequencies – particularly for routes in Europe and the US. This could lead to airports having to close and will create major challenges for some destinations in attracting sufficient travellers.
2. Staycationing – Nervous consumers in western economies in particular will continue to exercise caution in their spending decisions for fear of a ‘double dip recession’. The middle classes will stay at home in large numbers and vacation in their own country.
3. Asia Asia – The speed with which Asian economies are recovering from the downturn is highlighting their increasing power and importance. This will see a significant rise in business tourism as foreign firms tour the region in search of partners and opportunities.
4. Rail Reborn – The arrival of more high speed trains in Europe and environmental considerations will see a significant rise in people taking vacations by rail.
5. Cruise it or Lose it – A massive recent increase in capacity coupled with sluggish demand will result in continued bargains for cruise passengers – particularly in the US.
6. Mind the Gap – Rising numbers of people of every age group will choose to take a year, half-year or quarter off to do extended travel – possibly combining working opportunities and volunteer work on their travels.
7. Agent Seeks Model for Profitable Relationship – The desperation to find a viable travel agency business model will intensify. As airline commissions continue their inevitable slide to zero, agents will find themselves squeezed as they struggle to compete with internet travel booking services for straightforward transactions like airline ticketing. Only those who can provide a truly fantastic service will be able to charge their customers a fee for the value added. Otherwise they will have to choose between turning the customer away or doing the airline booking for free in the hope of building customer loyalty and then charging the customer fees for other more complex bookings in the future.
8. We love Grandma – Stresses in the workplace and concerns over job security will see increasing numbers of parents chose to stay at home and work while their children take vacations with their grandparents.
9. Ethnocations – The quest for authenticity means people will increasingly seek out the opportunity to visit and live with tribal people in their indigenous habitats.
10. The World in Your Hand – 2010 will be the year when we see an explosion of take up in the travel applications that are emerging for smartphones such as the Apple IPhone. You’ll be able to get background information on every cultural site you visit, see animations or videos of how people used to live in ruined cities such as Pompeii, check out what every seat looks like on a particular plane before making your choice, swap your home for a vacation and receive instant personalised offers as you walk past particular shops in a tourist destination.
Fast Future is a research and consulting firm which focuses on helping clients anticipate and develop innovative responses to the forces, patterns of change and ideas shaping the future.
