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Ontario’s labour market forecast for October, 2012

October 11, 2012

TORONTO, ON, Oct. 11, 12/ Troy Media/ – Employment in Ontario increased by an estimated 31,100 persons (0.5 per cent) in September compared with August, according to the latest estimate from Statistics Canada. The labour force increased by an estimated 31,600 persons (0.4 per cent).

That left the province’s unemployment rate at 7.9 per cent in September compared to 8.0 per cent in August. All numbers are seasonally-adjusted, unless otherwise noted.

Employment growth in September was mainly in part-time private sector payroll jobs and self-employment. It was also concentrated among men aged 25 and over. By industry, employment increased significantly in September in construction and information-recreation services, partly offset by significant declines in ‘other’ services and primary resource extraction. ‘Other’ services include repair, maintenance, personal and laundry services.

In the first nine months of 2012, employment has averaged 6.77 million persons in Ontario, not seasonally adjusted, up 0.6 per cent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, the average labour force year-to-date has also increased by 0.6 per cent and the average unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 8.0 per cent. We forecast employment growth in Ontario of 0.7 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2013, following last year’s 1.8 per cent gain. The unemployment rate is forecast at 7.8 per cent this year and 7.5 per cent in 2013, little changed from 7.8 per cent last year.

Regions

Regionally, job growth over the last three months has been driven almost entirely by metro Toronto and Hamilton-Niagara. Growth in these regions has been largely offset by declines in Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa, Northern Ontario, Kingston-Pembroke and Stratford-Bruce.

Toronto

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 42,900 persons (1.4 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment rate was little changed at 8.6 per cent.

Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 8,800 persons (1.2 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment rate decreased from 7.8 per cent to 7.4 per cent of the labour force.

Ottawa

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 15,000 persons (2.1 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment rate increased from 6.0 per cent to 6.4 per cent of the labour force.

Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 16,000 persons (2.3 per cent) from the prior three months, while the average unemployment rate increased from 6.6 per cent to 6.9 per cent of the labour force.

Windsor-Sarnia

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 2,900 persons (0.9 per cent) from the prior three months, while the average unemployment rate decreased from 8.5 per cent to 8.2 per cent of the labour force.

London

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 600 persons (0.2 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment rate was little changed at 7.8 per cent of the labour force.

Northeast

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 12,100 persons (4.6 per cent) from the prior three months. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate increased from 5.9 per cent to 6.9 per cent of the labour force.

Kingston-Pembroke

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 7,000 persons (3.3 per cent) from the preceding three months. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate increased from 6.6 per cent to 7.8 per cent of the labour force.

Muskoka-Kawarthas

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 900 persons (0.5 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment rate decreased from 7.5 per cent to 7.1 per cent of the labour force.

Stratford-Bruce Peninsula

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 5,800 persons (3.7 per cent) from the preceding three months. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate increased from 4.1 per cent to 5.4 per cent of the labour force.

Northwest

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 2,800 persons (2.8 per cent) from the preceding three months. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 per cent of the labour force.

| Central 1 Credit Union

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