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BC’s labour market forecast for October, 2012
BC's Business
October 11, 2012
VANCOUVER, BC, Oct. 11, 12/ Troy Media/ – Strong gains in a number of good-producing sectors underpinned a relatively positive job market report for B.C. in September. Total employment rose by 5,700 persons (0.2 per cent) from August to reach 2.328 million persons.
While monthly gains were solid, employment was up only 1.3 per cent from the same-month in 2011 and growth has been negligible since April. Monthly employment gains were largely attributed to higher agriculture, utilities and construction employment, which pushed total goods-sector employment up 2.9 per cent.
In contrast, service-sector employment fell 0.4 per cent led by finance, insurance and real estate (-7.4 per cent). With growth geared towards goods-producing sectors during the month, it is not a surprise that gains were stronger outside Metro Vancouver.
While top-line employment growth has been stagnant in recent months, and is expected to generate an annual average gain of only 1.7 per cent, this masks a positive shift in the labour market towards full-time positions. Full-time employment was up 0.7 per cent from August, and 3.1 per cent higher on a year-to-date basis through September. In contrast, part-time employment was down 2.6 per cent.
Total employment gains have been tepid, but likely reflect some consolidation of part-time positions, an increased number of shifts, and some sector-specific rebounds. This is further borne by an increased number of hours worked in the economy, which rose 2.5 per cent from the first three quarters of 2011.
Despite the gains, B.C.’s unemployment rate rose to 7 per cent from 6.7 per cent in August. Higher levels of unemployment reflect the slow-growth economy that has been unable to fully absorb population-induced labour force gains. Additionally, the positive trend in full-time employment may have led some discouraged workers to search for jobs again, as the labour force participation rate edged higher.
Lower Mainland-Southwest
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were neutral. Employment edged down by 2,400 persons (0.2 per cent) over the latest three month period. Flat employment combined with growth in the labour force to lift the unemployment rate to 7.1 per cent, up from 6.5 per cent.
Vancouver Island-Coast
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Employment contracted by 1,650 persons (0.5 per cent) over the latest three month period. A declining participation rate suggests some unemployed workers have become discouraged and left the labour market. The labour force shrank at a stronger pace than employment over the latest three-month period, lowering the regional unemployment rate to by 0.2 percentage points to 6 per cent.
Thompson-Okanagan
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment increases by 3,740 persons (1.4 per cent) over the latest three month period. This led to a 1.6 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate to 5.5 per cent.
Kootenay
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment rose by 845 persons (1.2 per cent) over the latest three month period. Positive employment trends have fuelled a rebound in the regional participation rate in recent months, which as lifted the unemployment rate to by 0.9 percentage points to 8.1 per cent.
Cariboo
The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were neutral. Employment grew by 70 persons (0.1 per cent) over the last three month period. Labour force expansion was comparable to employment growth, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.9 per cent.
North Coast-Nechako
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Employment fell by 2,020 persons (5.2 per cent) over the latest three month period. A retrenchment in the participation rate contributed to a steeper decline in the labour force, pushing the unemployment rate down 1.4 percentage points to 10.6 per cent.
Northeast
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Regional employment rose by 315 persons (0.8 per cent) over the latest three month period. Employment gains pulled the regional unemployment rate down to 4.4 per cent, down 0.4 percentage points.
| Central 1 Credit Union
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