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Ontario economic snapshot for the week ending Oct. 6, 2012
October 7, 201
TORONTO, ON, Oct. 7, 12/ Troy Media/ – Employment in Ontario increased by an estimated 31,100 persons (0.5 per cent) in September compared with August, according to the latest estimate from Statistics Canada. The labour force increased by an estimated 31,600 persons (0.4 per cent).
That left the province’s unemployment rate at 7.9 per cent in September compared to 8.0 per cent in August. All numbers are seasonally-adjusted, unless otherwise noted.
Employment growth in September was mainly in part-time private sector payroll jobs and self-employment. It was also concentrated among men aged 25 and over.
By industry, employment increased significantly in September in construction and information-recreation services, partly offset by significant declines in ‘other’ services and primary resource extraction. ‘Other’ services include repair, maintenance, personal and laundry services.
Regionally, job growth over the last three months has been driven almost entirely by metro Toronto and Hamilton-Niagara. Growth in these regions has been largely offset by declines in Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa, Northern Ontario, Kingston-Pembroke and Stratford-Bruce.
In the first nine months of 2012, employment has averaged 6.77 million persons in Ontario, not seasonally adjusted, up 0.6 per cent from the same period last year.
Meanwhile, the average labour force year-to-date has also increased by 0.6 per cent and the average unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 8.0 per cent. We forecast employment growth in Ontario of 0.7 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2013, following last year’s 1.8 per cent gain. The unemployment rate is forecast at 7.8 per cent this year and 7.5 per cent in 2013, little changed from 7.8 per cent last year.
Construction
Building permits issued in Ontario during August increased 16 per cent from July to $2.9 billion, seasonally adjusted. Growth was led by public sector nonresidential projects throughout the province. Despite August’s results, public sector building intentions are trending lower, while private sector building intentions are trending higher.
In the first eight months of 2012, building permits issued in Ontario totalled $20.2 billion, up 10 per cent from the same period last year. Residential permits totalled $12.2 billion year-to-date, up 19 per cent year-over-year. Private sector non-residential permits totalled $5.5 billion year-to-date, up 16 per cent year-over-year, while public sector non-residential permits totalled $2.4 billion, down 27 per cent.
Robust growth in housing starts and renovation over the past few years is forecast to slow next year. We forecast residential construction spending in Ontario will rise 10 per cent this year and 5 per cent in 2013, following a 10 per cent increase last year.
Private sector non-residential construction spending is forecast to rise just 2 per cent this year and 15 per cent in 2013, following a 7 per cent increase last year. Public sector, non-residential construction spending is forecast to drop 19 per cent this year and 20 per cent in 2013, following a 10 per cent increase last year.
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