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Ontario economic snapshot for June 16, 2012
June 16, 2012
TORONTO, ON, Jun 16, 2012/ Troy Media/ – Manufacturing sales in Ontario totalled $22.9 billion in April, seasonally adjusted, up 2.4 per cent from March.
Sales of transportation equipment, chemical, petroleum/coal, food, and plastic/rubber products increased, partly offset by decreased sales of machinery, fabricated metal and primary metal products. Unadjusted sales in April were up 11.3 per cent from a year earlier.
In the first four months of 2012, manufacturing sales in Ontario totalled $89.5 billion, seasonally adjusted, up 6.6 per cent from the same period last year. Year-over-year growth was led by transportation equipment (mostly automobiles and parts) and petroleum/coal products. We forecast manufacturing sales in Ontario will grow 4 per cent this year and 5 per cent in 2013, following a 6 per cent increase last year. Growth will be driven mainly by North American domestic demand. A high Canadian dollar and strong international competition will dampen export growth.
Automotive
New motor vehicle sales in Ontario totalled 53,028 units in April, down 2.1 per cent from March. The average sale price was $33,280 in April, down 1.6 per cent month over month. All figures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted.
Despite April’s small decline, new light car and truck sales in Ontario remain on a rising trend, which is forecast to continue through 2013. In the first four months of 2012, sales totalled 197,379 units, unadjusted, up 5.9 per cent from the same period last year. The average sale price was $33,305 year-to-date, down 1.3 per cent year-over-year.
Vehicle sales are being stimulated by low financing costs, pent up demand and employment growth and earnings growth. But vehicle sales are being dampened by high household debt, rising government debt and financial market volatility, all of which make consumers wary.
We forecast new motor vehicle unit sales in Ontario will rise 3.6 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2013, following a 2.4 per cent increase last year. The average price is forecast to inch up 0.8 per cent in 2012 and 1.5 per cent next year, after a 1 per cent decline last year.
Housing
Ontario’s housing market cooled in May as MLS unit sales decreased 6.0 per cent from April and the average sale price declined 1.1 per cent. That is the first significant stall in Ontario’s housing market in almost a year. All figures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted.
In the first five months of 2012, unadjusted unit sales were up 8.3 per cent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, prices averaged $394,706 year-to-date, unadjusted, up 7.3 per cent year-over-year. The average sale price set a record high in April.
Almost every real estate board area in Ontario has recorded a double digit growth rate in year-to-date, year-over-year dollar sales volume. Leading this growth metric are several real estate boards in the Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie and Northeast regions. The Toronto region has also recorded above average growth rates in year-to-date, year-over-year sales volume.
Only four of 43 Ontario real estate boards have recorded decreases in year-to-date, year-over-year dollar sales volume: Woodstock-Ingersoll, Renfrew County, Bancroft District and Tillsonburg District.
We forecast another year of growth in Ontario’s re-sale housing market in 2012. Unit sales are predicted to rise 2.0 per cent following 2.5 per cent growth last year. The average sale price is forecast to rise 3.4 per cent this year following a 6.9 per cent increase in 2011. Total dollar volume is thus forecast to climb 5.4 per cent in 2012 versus 9.4 per cent last year. The overall re-sale market is expected to continue experiencing more or less balanced supply and demand this year, although that varies among local markets.
| Central 1 Credit Union
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