Tags: BC's Business, Business - Jobs, Eye on BC

BC’s labour market forecast for June, 2012

June 15, 2012

VANCOUVER, BC, Jun 15, 2012/ Troy Media/ – Employment growth in British Columbia took a breather in May on the heels of a sharp April gain. Total employment in May was virtually unchanged from April at a seasonally-adjusted 2.32 million persons, marking an insignificant decline of 0.2 per cent.

While weakening global economic conditions may be weighing on employer hiring decisions, a lull in employment growth following outsized gains in April was expected.

Metro Vancouver employment growth outpaced the rest of the province, expanding 0.3 per cent from April to reach 1.29 million persons. Despite the lack of employment growth in May, the underlying uptrend in provincial employment persisted, with year-over-year gains reaching 1.9 per cent.

A positive take-away from the employment report was the continued gains in full-time employment. Full-time employment has finally returned to prerecession highs and was up 2.6 per cent from May 2011. A declining trend in part-time employment suggests that some workers are finding full-time employment, or being shifted to full-time hours.

As expected, April’s sharp decline in the provincial unemployment rate reversed course in May, rising from 6.2 per cent to 7.4 per cent. The number of unemployed swelled 20 per cent during the month, more than reversing the surprise 10 per cent decline in April.

Half of the total increase was in the 15 to 24 age group, which also saw its unemployment rate rise from 10.5 per cent to 15.3 per cent. Some of this increase in unemployment may reflect positively on the economy as some individuals re-enter the labour force in response to recent employment growth and stronger job prospects.

Recent volatility in labour market indicators warrants caution. While some of the movements reflect real changes in labour market conditions, the substantial volatility points to statistical sampling variability in the labour market survey, or the potential that changing seasonal factors are not appropriately being accounted for.

Lower Mainland-Southwest

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment rose by 19,800 persons (1.4 per cent) over the latest three month period. The regional unemployment rate edged fell 0.4 percentage points to 6.4 per cent.

Vancouver Island-Coast

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment rose by 1,720 persons (0.5 per cent) over the latest three month period. Employment gains outpaced changes in the labour force, generating a 0.2 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate to 5.8 per cent during the same period.

Thompson-Okanagan

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Estimated employment fell by 1,380 persons (0.5 per cent) over the latest three month period. Declines in employment and stable labour force pushed the regional unemployment rate up 0.3 percentage points to 8.3 per cent.

Kootenay

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Employment fell by 2,830 persons (3.7 per cent) over the latest three month period. The region’s unemployment rate rose from 5.8 per cent to 7.8 per cent.

Cariboo

The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment grew by 2,000 persons (2.4 per cent) over the last three month period. Despite this gain, the regional unemployment rate held steady at 7.8 per cent. This gain in the unemployment rate is a positive sign for the economy and reflects a higher participation rate as discourage workers re-enter the labour market in response to positive job prospects.

North Coast-Nechako

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Employment fell by 1,300 persons (3.1 per cent) over the latest three month period. However, a retrenchment in the labour force participation rate (and resulting drop in the size of the labour force), pushed the regional unemployment down by one percentage point to a still-high 10.7 per cent

Northeast

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Regional employment rose by 920 persons (2.3 per cent) over the latest three month period. The estimated unemployment rate remained low at a miniscule 3.9 per cent.

| Central 1 Credit Union

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